The future of cloud computing as a complex adaptive system
 

So what does this have to do with cloud computing? Well, today, very little really. Most cloud computing automation happens in pockets, with systems under management "belonging" to one set of algorithms that decide how application needs are matched with available resources. While the public clouds have some competition for resources today--Amazon's spot pricing option is evidence of this--the truth is, there isn't either the volume or the interconnectedness of cloud systems to create true complex adaptive systems behaviors.

But think ahead. Imagine a world in which cloud systems operate in an increasingly interconnected fashion; a world in which the automation controlling the needs of a single application--or even a single aspect of a complex distributed application system--must compete for resources across the globe with every other application. Add to that the different service automation environments run by the cloud providers themselves, each making decisions for the good of the resources that make up that service.

You now have an environment with a large number of highly interdependent software agents attempting to operate a "market" of IT resources and services on behalf of other applications or even human beings. I can almost guarantee to you that this system--what some may think of as the Inter-Cloud--will display some quite unexpected behavior of its own.

Most of that will likely be good; strong pricing efficiencies, rapid re-provisioning of resources in response to unpredictable events, and so on. However, there will also be the increased possibility that some relatively small event somewhere--let's say the shutdown of a data center due to political conflict--will trigger a chain reaction of events that would negatively affect a large number of customers.

Perhaps other data centers become overloaded themselves and can't meet their own service level agreements. Or the application management systems confuse each other into believing that resources are not available when they are, and the applications are depricated or shut down entirely.

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, would be sudden wild price swings that could add greatly to the cost of computing for all.

To meet the challenge of the "flash crash," regulators and exchanges are working together to increase the effectiveness of so-called circuit-breaker processes. As we build out the federation and interoperability capabilities of our cloud marketplace, we should do so completely understanding that that market needs failure protection of its own.

For now, however, it's no big deal. Which is why the cloud market probably won't remember May 6, 2010, until it's too late.

Link:http://news.cnet.com/8301-19413_3-20004757-240.html